Glasgow North East by-election

Glasgow North East by-election set for September

Scots Labour Party officials appear to have won a battle with London over the timing of the crucial Glasgow North East by-election, triggered by the decision of Michael Martin, the Commons Speaker, to stand down over the MPs' expenses scandal.

The Times has learnt that early September has been pencilled in for the contest, even though the Norwich North by-election is almost certain to be held in late July.

Labour's hierarchy in London had pushed for the Glasgow contest to be held on the same date as the one in Norwich. But this looks to have been successfully resisted by local officials in Glasgow, who pointed out that last year's Glasgow East by-election was held in July and Labour lost to the Scottish National Party.

While Labour has virtually written off hope of saving the Norwich seat - where the Tories need a swing of less than 6 per cent - they are more confident of holding on to the Glasgow constituency and believe that a longer run-up would benefit the party.

The Glenrothes by-election was delayed for almost three months last year after the death of the sitting MP, and resulted in Labour easily seeing off the SNP challenge.

As tradition demands in the constituency of the Speaker, Mr Martin was not opposed by the main parties at the 2005 general election and recorded a 10,000-plus majority over the SNP, which did field a candidate.

Labour was cheered by the result in Glasgow North East in last week's European election where it managed a 2,000 majority over the SNP, albeit on a turnout of 29 per cent and at the peak of the controversy over Gordon Brown's future and the expenses scandal.

Against that, a worry for Labour and the Prime Minister is that if the party were to lose Glasgow North East, it would be in the run-up to its annual conference, potentially opening up the leadership issue once more.

Senior figures in the constituency party believe that the damaging local issue of school closures may have receded by the time of the poll in September. Labour-run Glasgow City Council has been criticised by parents and Opposition parties over its programme to close or merge 20 under-used nursery and primary schools, four of them in Glasgow North East, saving more than £3million a year, and transferring pupils to other refurbished schools in the area.

A senior Labour source said: “The kids will be back at their new schools in August, meaning that the issue will have begun to fizzle out once people see that their childrens' new schools are nicer than their old ones.”

The other big local issue is poverty. According to the Office of National Statistics, 25.4 per cent of Glasgow North East's working-age population are on benefit as a result of “limiting, long-term illness” - the highest level in Scotland.

More than 30 per cent of adults are classed as economically inactive and the seat has the highest level of people without any kind of educational or vocational qualification in Britain, at 52 per cent. Compared to the rest of Scotland, smoking rates, cancer deaths, crime, and drug and alcohol abuse are higher. Incomes and life expectancy are also lower.

The SNP laid much of the blame for similar statistics at the door of Labour in the neighbouring constituency of Glasgow East last year when it overturned a 13,000 Labour majority.

The Times